Report: EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects
The EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects report, published on 25 September, shows that growth in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus slowed from 4.7% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024 and 2% in the first half of 2025, as the boost from intermediated trade and inflows of labour and capital to the economies of the Caucasus waned.
Growth slowed sharply in Azerbaijan as the oil and gas sector contracted, while in Georgia, the moderation in growth has been slower than expected, with continued strong performance in ICT and other service sectors.
Average growth in the region is expected to pick up to 3 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent in 2026. The 2025 growth forecasts for Moldova and Ukraine have been revised down. In Moldova, this reflects weak outturns in agriculture and manufacturing, high energy imports and still-high inflation weighing on consumption. In Ukraine, the impact of the ongoing Russian aggression has been compounded by weak harvests, and the external sector deteriorated.
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